FIM District Troy Event presented by Aptiv Foundation

Playoff · Playoff Match 5 R2

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

102.91 – 221.06

19%81%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

74 – 257

Prediction correct · off by 32.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 501.8 ±10.5

573Mech Warriors

Season APEX 210.4Event APEX 60.89Rank 22Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11493Pixel Knights

Season APEX 227.1Event APEX 25.44Rank 13Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7762AutoPilots

Season APEX 64.3Event APEX 16.58Rank 40Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 449.4 ±11.2

5527Cyber Phoenix

Season APEX 71.7Event APEX 46.63Rank 19Record 5-6-1Status establishedConfidence 97

3175Knight Vision

Season APEX 224.1Event APEX 67.32Rank 9Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

226Hammerheads

Season APEX 153.6Event APEX 107.11Rank 7Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 573, 11493, 7762

/ 100 compat

Projected

102.9 pts

~1.0 RP (district)

Teams: 573, 11493, 7762

Auto

22.7 22%

Teleop

49.2 49%

Endgame

29.0 29%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 57%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5527, 3175, 226

/ 100 compat

Projected

221.1 pts

~2.4 RP (district)

Teams: 5527, 3175, 226

Auto

31.7 14%

Teleop

152.6 69%

Endgame

38.3 17%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 57%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.98 · Blue 2.41

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score102.9pts

Blue projected score221.1pts

Red win probability19%

Event bonus sample202alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 57%, blue 66%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 10%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -118.1
Score range: 69–255
Upset likelihood: 19%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Playoff

Combined score 331 vs event baseline 187.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

501.8Season APEX449.4

22.7Auto31.7

49.2Teleop152.6

29Endgame38.3

44Consistency1

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	35	44
teleop	9	157
endgame	30	51
foul	0	5
total	74	257

Result

Final score

74 – 257

Prediction correct · off by 32.4 pts

Match videos

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