FIM District Troy Event presented by Aptiv Foundation

Playoff · Playoff Match 4 R1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

323.35 – 208.81

81%19%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

423 – 157

Prediction correct · off by 75.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 586 ±9.9

2851Crevolution

Season APEX 246.5Event APEX 182.61Rank 3Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4384Benzene Bots

Season APEX 89.5Event APEX 30.52Rank 32Record 4-7-1Status establishedConfidence 97

469Las Guerrillas

Season APEX 250Event APEX 110.22Rank 10Record 8-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 272 ±12.7

8728Argonauts

Season APEX 129.1Event APEX 103.86Rank 11Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10665Unibots

Season APEX 39.6Event APEX 23.58Rank 21Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5860Full Metal Muskrats

Season APEX 103.3Event APEX 81.37Rank 15Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2851, 4384, 469

/ 100 compat

Projected

323.4 pts

~2.3 RP (district)

Teams: 2851, 4384, 469

Auto

51.0 16%

Teleop

191.0 60%

Endgame

73.8 23%

Strengths

· 2851 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 60%

Supercharged: 8%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 8728, 10665, 5860

/ 100 compat

Projected

208.8 pts

~1.1 RP (district)

Teams: 8728, 10665, 5860

Auto

34.0 17%

Teleop

115.0 57%

Endgame

51.5 26%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 60%

Supercharged: 8%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.32 · Blue 1.05

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score323.4pts

Blue projected score208.8pts

Red win probability81%

Event bonus sample202alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 60%, blue 61%

Supercharged bonusred 8%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 114.5
Score range: 175–357
Upset likelihood: 19%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 580 vs event baseline 186.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

586Season APEX272

51Auto34

191Teleop115

73.8Endgame51.5

20Consistency29

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	110	21
teleop	179	91
endgame	79	45
foul	55	0
total	423	157

Result

Final score

423 – 157

Prediction correct · off by 75.7 pts

Match videos

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