FIM District Troy Event presented by Aptiv Foundation

Playoff · Playoff Match 3 R1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

399.2 – 168.28

95%5%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

315 – 98

Prediction correct · off by 77.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 582.3 ±9.9

10612Cougear

Season APEX 77Event APEX 44.07Rank 16Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

33Killer Bees

Season APEX 256.8Event APEX 177.98Rank 5Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

201The FEDS

Season APEX 248.5Event APEX 177.15Rank 2Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 333.2 ±11.6

5531Orange Crush

Season APEX 89.8Event APEX 51.25Rank 12Record 8-3-1Status establishedConfidence 97

5436Cyber Cats

Season APEX 91.9Event APEX 44.67Rank 35Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

7188SaddleBots

Season APEX 151.5Event APEX 72.36Rank 14Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10612, 33, 201

/ 100 compat

Projected

399.2 pts

~2.6 RP (district)

Teams: 10612, 33, 201

Auto

52.7 14%

Teleop

236.2 61%

Endgame

100.6 26%

Strengths

· 33 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 54%

Supercharged: 11%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5531, 5436, 7188

/ 100 compat

Projected

168.3 pts

~0.8 RP (district)

Teams: 5531, 5436, 7188

Auto

32.8 20%

Teleop

76.4 47%

Endgame

52.0 32%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 54%

Supercharged: 11%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.57 · Blue 0.82

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score399.2pts

Blue projected score168.3pts

Red win probability95%

Event bonus sample202alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 54%, blue 62%

Supercharged bonusred 11%, blue 7%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 230.9
Score range: 134–433
Upset likelihood: 5%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Playoff

Standard match.

Combined score 413 vs event baseline 186.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

582.3Season APEX333.2

52.7Auto32.8

236.2Teleop76.4

100.6Endgame52

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	103	34
teleop	132	11
endgame	65	48
foul	15	5
total	315	98

Result

Final score

315 – 98

Prediction correct · off by 77.2 pts

Match videos

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