FIM District Troy Event presented by Aptiv Foundation

Playoff · Playoff Match 2 R1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

341.94 – 213.5

83%17%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

348 – 247

Prediction correct · off by 19.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 543.9 ±9.9

10652Mechanical MacGyvers

Season APEX 65.5Event APEX 37.45Rank 28Record 4-7-1Status establishedConfidence 97

1498The Polar Pilots

Season APEX 250.1Event APEX 147.71Rank 6Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9245Laker Dreadnoughts

Season APEX 228.3Event APEX 156.78Rank 8Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 449.4 ±11.2

5527Cyber Phoenix

Season APEX 71.7Event APEX 44.18Rank 19Record 5-6-1Status establishedConfidence 97

3175Knight Vision

Season APEX 224.1Event APEX 64.3Rank 9Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

226Hammerheads

Season APEX 153.6Event APEX 105.02Rank 7Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10652, 1498, 9245

/ 100 compat

Projected

341.9 pts

~2.4 RP (district)

Teams: 10652, 1498, 9245

Auto

77.3 23%

Teleop

188.7 56%

Endgame

70.2 21%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 64%

Supercharged: 11%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5527, 3175, 226

/ 100 compat

Projected

213.5 pts

~1.1 RP (district)

Teams: 5527, 3175, 226

Auto

26.4 12%

Teleop

146.1 68%

Endgame

42.2 20%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 64%

Supercharged: 11%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.43 · Blue 1.12

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score341.9pts

Blue projected score213.5pts

Red win probability83%

Event bonus sample202alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 64%, blue 66%

Supercharged bonusred 11%, blue 10%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 128.4
Score range: 181–375
Upset likelihood: 17%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 595 vs event baseline 185.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

543.9Season APEX449.4

77.3Auto26.4

188.7Teleop146.1

70.2Endgame42.2

39Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	90	58
teleop	169	167
endgame	84	22
foul	5	0
total	348	247

Result

Final score

348 – 247

Prediction correct · off by 19.8 pts

Match videos

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