FIM District Troy Event presented by Aptiv Foundation

Playoff · Playoff Match 13 R5

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

351.56 – 383.48

40%60%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

114 – 471

Prediction correct · off by 162.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 586 ±9.9

4384Benzene Bots

Season APEX 89.5Event APEX 40.8Rank 32Record 4-7-1Status establishedConfidence 97

2851Crevolution

Season APEX 246.5Event APEX 189.04Rank 3Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

469Las Guerrillas

Season APEX 250Event APEX 121.72Rank 10Record 8-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 582.3 ±9.9

10612Cougear

Season APEX 77Event APEX 38.06Rank 16Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

33Killer Bees

Season APEX 256.8Event APEX 175.19Rank 5Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

201The FEDS

Season APEX 248.5Event APEX 170.23Rank 2Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4384, 2851, 469

/ 100 compat

Projected

351.6 pts

~1.5 RP (district)

Teams: 4384, 2851, 469

Auto

65.5 19%

Teleop

185.2 55%

Endgame

87.0 26%

Strengths

· 2851 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 60%

Supercharged: 8%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 10612, 33, 201

/ 100 compat

Projected

383.5 pts

~1.9 RP (district)

Teams: 10612, 33, 201

Auto

63.9 17%

Teleop

213.0 57%

Endgame

98.4 26%

Strengths

· 33 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 60%

Supercharged: 8%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.51 · Blue 1.87

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score351.6pts

Blue projected score383.5pts

Red win probability40%

Event bonus sample202alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 60%, blue 54%

Supercharged bonusred 8%, blue 11%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -31.9
Score range: 317–418
Upset likelihood: 40%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 585 vs event baseline 194.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

586Season APEX582.3

65.5Auto63.9

185.2Teleop213

87Endgame98.4

19Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	34	108
teleop	65	240
endgame	15	123
foul	0	0
total	114	471

Result

Final score

114 – 471

Prediction correct · off by 162.5 pts

Match videos

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