FIM District Troy Event presented by Aptiv Foundation

Playoff · Playoff Match 12 R4

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

371.95 – 298.14

71%29%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

456 – 228

Prediction correct · off by 77.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 582.3 ±9.9

10612Cougear

Season APEX 77Event APEX 34.19Rank 16Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

33Killer Bees

Season APEX 256.8Event APEX 171.02Rank 5Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

201The FEDS

Season APEX 248.5Event APEX 166.74Rank 2Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 543.9 ±9.9

10652Mechanical MacGyvers

Season APEX 65.5Event APEX 22.08Rank 28Record 4-7-1Status establishedConfidence 97

1498The Polar Pilots

Season APEX 250.1Event APEX 132.05Rank 6Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9245Laker Dreadnoughts

Season APEX 228.3Event APEX 144.01Rank 8Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10612, 33, 201

/ 100 compat

Projected

372 pts

~2.1 RP (district)

Teams: 10612, 33, 201

Auto

60.0 17%

Teleop

201.9 56%

Endgame

100.7 28%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 54%

Supercharged: 11%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 10652, 1498, 9245

/ 100 compat

Projected

298.1 pts

~1.3 RP (district)

Teams: 10652, 1498, 9245

Auto

74.9 26%

Teleop

151.9 52%

Endgame

66.1 23%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 54%

Supercharged: 11%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.1 · Blue 1.34

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score372pts

Blue projected score298.1pts

Red win probability71%

Event bonus sample202alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 54%, blue 64%

Supercharged bonusred 11%, blue 11%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 73.8
Score range: 263–407
Upset likelihood: 29%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 684 vs event baseline 192.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

582.3Season APEX543.9

60Auto74.9

201.9Teleop151.9

100.7Endgame66.1

0Consistency35

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	89	52
teleop	285	129
endgame	82	47
foul	0	0
total	456	228

Result

Final score

456 – 228

Prediction correct · off by 77.1 pts

Match videos

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