Qualification · Qualification 9
APEX prediction
Predicted winner
Red alliance
Predicted score
148.09 – 59.72
75%25%
Actual result
Winner
Blue alliance
Final score
78 – 88
Prediction missed · off by 49.2 points
Limited current-season data (8 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.
red allianceTotal Season APEX 379.2 ±11.7
Season APEX 250Event APEX 34.86Rank 10Record 8-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 63.7Event APEX 89.53Rank 41Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Season APEX 65.5Event APEX 23.7Rank 28Record 4-7-1Status establishedConfidence 97
blue allianceTotal Season APEX 153.7 ±12.7
Season APEX 64.3Event APEX 11.43Rank 40Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Season APEX 49.8Event APEX 13.43Rank 27Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Season APEX 39.6Event APEX 34.86Rank 21Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Scouting breakdown
Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.
Red · 469, 4768, 10652
65
/ 100 compatProjected
148.1 pts
~2.1 RP (district)
Teams: 469, 4768, 10652
Auto
34.0 24%
Teleop
71.7 50%
Endgame
37.6 26%
Strengths
- · Well-balanced across phases
Weaknesses
–
RP bonus probability
Energized: 54%
Supercharged: 7%
Traversal: 2%
Blue · 7762, 9679, 10665
37
/ 100 compatProjected
59.7 pts
~1.0 RP (district)
Teams: 7762, 9679, 10665
Auto
24.6 42%
Teleop
25.1 43%
Endgame
8.6 15%
Strengths
- · Strong autonomous coverage
Weaknesses
- · Thin endgame coverage
- · Below-average combined firepower
RP bonus probability
Energized: 54%
Supercharged: 7%
Traversal: 2%
Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.13 · Blue 0.98
Formula
RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)
Inputs
Rule setDistrict
Red projected score148.1pts
Blue projected score59.7pts
Red win probability75%
Event bonus sample202alliance-matches
Adjustments
Energized bonusred 54%, blue 44%
Supercharged bonusred 7%, blue 2%
Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%
- District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
- Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
- Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).
Prediction detail
- Predicted margin
- 88.4
- Score range
- 28–180
- Upset likelihood
- 25%
- Data cutoff
- 2026-08-15
- Model
- apex-0.4.0
Red vs Blue
Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)
379.2Season APEX153.7
34Auto24.6
71.7Teleop25.1
37.6Endgame8.6
0Consistency0
Score breakdown
Official phase points (TBA)
| Phase | Red | Blue |
|---|---|---|
| auto | 8 | 11 |
| teleop | 29 | 29 |
| endgame | 26 | 8 |
| foul | 15 | 40 |
| total | 78 | 88 |
Result
Final score
78 – 88
Prediction missed · off by 49.2 pts
Score check across official sources:
agree
Match videos
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