FIM District Troy Event presented by Aptiv Foundation

Qualification · Qualification 86

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

254.37 – 83.91

89%11%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

253 – 156

Prediction correct · off by 36.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 545.8 ±10.7

4961Shock and Awe-sum

Season APEX 85.3Event APEX 41.46Rank 23Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1498The Polar Pilots

Season APEX 250.1Event APEX 147.66Rank 6Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

573Mech Warriors

Season APEX 210.4Event APEX 65.25Rank 22Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 204 ±13.3

11486Chesterton Saints

Season APEX 66.8Event APEX 13.27Rank 29Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10652Mechanical MacGyvers

Season APEX 65.5Event APEX 31.54Rank 28Record 4-7-1Status establishedConfidence 97

5527Cyber Phoenix

Season APEX 71.7Event APEX 39.1Rank 19Record 5-6-1Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4961, 1498, 573

/ 100 compat

Projected

254.4 pts

~2.5 RP (district)

Teams: 4961, 1498, 573

Auto

46.9 19%

Teleop

155.2 62%

Endgame

49.5 20%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 64%

Supercharged: 6%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 11486, 10652, 5527

/ 100 compat

Projected

83.9 pts

~0.8 RP (district)

Teams: 11486, 10652, 5527

Auto

18.5 23%

Teleop

36.9 45%

Endgame

26.6 32%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 64%

Supercharged: 6%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.51 · Blue 0.82

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score254.4pts

Blue projected score83.9pts

Red win probability89%

Event bonus sample202alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 64%, blue 55%

Supercharged bonusred 6%, blue 5%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 170.5
Score range: 51–287
Upset likelihood: 11%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 409 vs event baseline 184.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

545.8Season APEX204

46.9Auto18.5

155.2Teleop36.9

49.5Endgame26.6

9Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	53	30
teleop	147	84
endgame	53	42
foul	0	0
total	253	156

Result

Final score

253 – 156

Prediction correct · off by 36.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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