FIM District Troy Event presented by Aptiv Foundation

Qualification · Qualification 85

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

55.79 – 113.15

33%67%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

36 – 250

Prediction correct · off by 78.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 152.7 ±13.3

9618Tronarchs

Season APEX 42Event APEX 27.73Rank 42Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8115Platinum Peacocks

Season APEX 47Event APEX 23.97Rank 34Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4768Cody "The Green Comet"

Season APEX 63.7Event APEX 4.09Rank 41Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 393 ±12.4

469Las Guerrillas

Season APEX 250Event APEX 99.28Rank 10Record 8-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5467RoboTractors

Season APEX 43.6Event APEX -10.11Rank 39Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9747ElectroPanthers II

Season APEX 99.4Event APEX 23.98Rank 17Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9618, 8115, 4768

/ 100 compat

Projected

55.8 pts

~1.2 RP (district)

Teams: 9618, 8115, 4768

Auto

17.3 30%

Teleop

15.9 27%

Endgame

25.3 43%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 45%

Supercharged: 8%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 469, 5467, 9747

/ 100 compat

Projected

113.2 pts

~1.9 RP (district)

Teams: 469, 5467, 9747

Auto

29.2 28%

Teleop

68.2 65%

Endgame

7.6 7%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 45%

Supercharged: 8%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.21 · Blue 1.94

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score55.8pts

Blue projected score113.2pts

Red win probability33%

Event bonus sample202alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 45%, blue 55%

Supercharged bonusred 8%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -57.4
Score range: 23–146
Upset likelihood: 33%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 286 vs event baseline 184.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

152.7Season APEX393

17.3Auto29.2

15.9Teleop68.2

25.3Endgame7.6

0Consistency33

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	14	17
teleop	15	175
endgame	7	58
foul	0	0
total	36	250

Result

Final score

36 – 250

Prediction correct · off by 78.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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