FIM District Troy Event presented by Aptiv Foundation

Qualification · Qualification 84

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

283.65 – 57

94%6%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

268 – 60

Prediction correct · off by 9.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 433.4 ±10.5

5478Pershing Doughbots

Season APEX 44.5Event APEX 15.06Rank 30Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

7188SaddleBots

Season APEX 151.5Event APEX 72.99Rank 14Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4362Gems

Season APEX 237.4Event APEX 195.6Rank 4Record 9-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 136.3 ±13.3

7813New Haven RoboRaptors

Season APEX 41Event APEX 12.24Rank 26Record 5-6-1Status establishedConfidence 97

9252Wingspan

Season APEX 45.5Event APEX 24.8Rank 36Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9679Madison Eagles

Season APEX 49.8Event APEX 19.96Rank 27Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5478, 7188, 4362

/ 100 compat

Projected

283.7 pts

~2.6 RP (district)

Teams: 5478, 7188, 4362

Auto

55.3 19%

Teleop

160.2 56%

Endgame

69.3 24%

Strengths

· 4362 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 66%

Supercharged: 7%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 7813, 9252, 9679

/ 100 compat

Projected

57 pts

~0.6 RP (district)

Teams: 7813, 9252, 9679

Auto

8.4 15%

Teleop

31.6 56%

Endgame

16.3 29%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 66%

Supercharged: 7%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.64 · Blue 0.62

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score283.7pts

Blue projected score57pts

Red win probability94%

Event bonus sample202alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 66%, blue 47%

Supercharged bonusred 7%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 226.7
Score range: 24–317
Upset likelihood: 6%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 328 vs event baseline 185.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

433.4Season APEX136.3

55.3Auto8.4

160.2Teleop31.6

69.3Endgame16.3

2Consistency42

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	16	15
teleop	172	23
endgame	80	17
foul	0	5
total	268	60

Result

Final score

268 – 60

Prediction correct · off by 9.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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