FIM District Troy Event presented by Aptiv Foundation

Qualification · Qualification 83

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

183.28 – 463.56

3%97%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

208 – 555

Prediction correct · off by 58.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 276 ±12.7

5860Full Metal Muskrats

Season APEX 103.3Event APEX 80.7Rank 15Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8728Argonauts

Season APEX 129.1Event APEX 101.53Rank 11Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

7716JLW Formula 01

Season APEX 43.6Event APEX 1.05Rank 43Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 685.6 ±10.7

8364Rising Stars Academy - Nebulas

Season APEX 43.4Event APEX -7.36Rank 18Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

7769The CREW

Season APEX 385.4Event APEX 300.49Rank 1Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

33Killer Bees

Season APEX 256.8Event APEX 170.43Rank 5Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5860, 8728, 7716

/ 100 compat

Projected

183.3 pts

~0.7 RP (district)

Teams: 5860, 8728, 7716

Auto

38.3 22%

Teleop

98.0 55%

Endgame

41.1 23%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 59%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 8364, 7769, 33

/ 100 compat

Projected

463.6 pts

~2.7 RP (district)

Teams: 8364, 7769, 33

Auto

85.1 19%

Teleop

267.8 58%

Endgame

105.2 23%

Strengths

· 7769 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 59%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.71 · Blue 2.68

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score183.3pts

Blue projected score463.6pts

Red win probability3%

Event bonus sample202alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 59%, blue 55%

Supercharged bonusred 4%, blue 17%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -280.3
Score range: 150–497
Upset likelihood: 3%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 763 vs event baseline 182.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

276Season APEX685.6

38.3Auto85.1

98Teleop267.8

41.1Endgame105.2

9Consistency58

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	20	61
teleop	121	338
endgame	62	141
foul	5	15
total	208	555

Result

Final score

208 – 555

Prediction correct · off by 58.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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