FIM District Troy Event presented by Aptiv Foundation

Qualification · Qualification 82

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

67.57 – 266.39

8%92%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

39 – 190

Prediction correct · off by 52.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 190.6 ±13.3

7762AutoPilots

Season APEX 64.3Event APEX 23.31Rank 40Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3302TurboTrojans

Season APEX 52.7Event APEX 29.17Rank 24Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5197Northwestern High

Season APEX 73.6Event APEX 15.09Rank 31Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 388 ±11.7

2851Crevolution

Season APEX 246.5Event APEX 186.99Rank 3Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9528The Wolf Pack

Season APEX 64.5Event APEX 26.99Rank 20Record 6-5-1Status establishedConfidence 97

10612Cougear

Season APEX 77Event APEX 52.41Rank 16Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 7762, 3302, 5197

/ 100 compat

Projected

67.6 pts

~0.8 RP (district)

Teams: 7762, 3302, 5197

Auto

33.0 49%

Teleop

18.1 27%

Endgame

16.4 24%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 56%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2851, 9528, 10612

/ 100 compat

Projected

266.4 pts

~2.5 RP (district)

Teams: 2851, 9528, 10612

Auto

44.8 18%

Teleop

146.6 58%

Endgame

60.9 24%

Strengths

· 2851 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 56%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.77 · Blue 2.46

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score67.6pts

Blue projected score266.4pts

Red win probability8%

Event bonus sample202alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 56%, blue 53%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 6%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -198.8
Score range: 35–299
Upset likelihood: 8%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 229 vs event baseline 183.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

190.6Season APEX388

33Auto44.8

18.1Teleop146.6

16.4Endgame60.9

53Consistency21

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	14	33
teleop	12	121
endgame	13	31
foul	0	5
total	39	190

Result

Final score

39 – 190

Prediction correct · off by 52.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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