FIM District Troy Event presented by Aptiv Foundation

Qualification · Qualification 81

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

246.08 – 222.48

57%43%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

290 – 253

Prediction correct · off by 37.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 565.4 ±10.5

5531Orange Crush

Season APEX 89.8Event APEX 48.88Rank 12Record 8-3-1Status establishedConfidence 97

201The FEDS

Season APEX 248.5Event APEX 173.62Rank 2Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11493Pixel Knights

Season APEX 227.1Event APEX 23.58Rank 13Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 416 ±11.7

11361ORA Raven Bots

Season APEX 95.8Event APEX 23.98Rank 25Record 5-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9245Laker Dreadnoughts

Season APEX 228.3Event APEX 157.53Rank 8Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5436Cyber Cats

Season APEX 91.9Event APEX 40.97Rank 35Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5531, 201, 11493

/ 100 compat

Projected

246.1 pts

~1.8 RP (district)

Teams: 5531, 201, 11493

Auto

23.0 9%

Teleop

149.7 61%

Endgame

71.0 29%

Strengths

· 201 anchors offense

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 59%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 11361, 9245, 5436

/ 100 compat

Projected

222.5 pts

~1.6 RP (district)

Teams: 11361, 9245, 5436

Auto

51.7 24%

Teleop

112.2 52%

Endgame

51.0 24%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 59%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.81 · Blue 1.57

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score246.1pts

Blue projected score222.5pts

Red win probability57%

Event bonus sample202alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 59%, blue 64%

Supercharged bonusred 5%, blue 6%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 23.6
Score range: 189–279
Upset likelihood: 43%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 543 vs event baseline 182.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

565.4Season APEX416

23Auto51.7

149.7Teleop112.2

71Endgame51

0Consistency36

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	64	78
teleop	125	103
endgame	96	67
foul	5	5
total	290	253

Result

Final score

290 – 253

Prediction correct · off by 37.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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