FIM District Troy Event presented by Aptiv Foundation

Qualification · Qualification 78

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

377.32 – 238.8

85%15%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

525 – 201

Prediction correct · off by 92.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 622.2 ±11.2

7769The CREW

Season APEX 385.4Event APEX 287.78Rank 1Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7188SaddleBots

Season APEX 151.5Event APEX 62.39Rank 14Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4961Shock and Awe-sum

Season APEX 85.3Event APEX 27.15Rank 23Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 400.5 ±12.4

4362Gems

Season APEX 237.4Event APEX 201.34Rank 4Record 9-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9747ElectroPanthers II

Season APEX 99.4Event APEX 27.47Rank 17Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4768Cody "The Green Comet"

Season APEX 63.7Event APEX 9.99Rank 41Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 7769, 7188, 4961

/ 100 compat

Projected

377.3 pts

~2.5 RP (district)

Teams: 7769, 7188, 4961

Auto

69.1 18%

Teleop

227.0 60%

Endgame

80.3 21%

Strengths

· 7769 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 66%

Supercharged: 13%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4362, 9747, 4768

/ 100 compat

Projected

238.8 pts

~1.0 RP (district)

Teams: 4362, 9747, 4768

Auto

46.0 19%

Teleop

123.8 52%

Endgame

69.8 29%

Strengths

· 4362 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 66%

Supercharged: 13%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.51 · Blue 0.98

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score377.3pts

Blue projected score238.8pts

Red win probability85%

Event bonus sample202alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 66%, blue 58%

Supercharged bonusred 13%, blue 7%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 138.5
Score range: 206–410
Upset likelihood: 15%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 726 vs event baseline 181.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

622.2Season APEX400.5

69.1Auto46

227Teleop123.8

80.3Endgame69.8

17Consistency3

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	89	50
teleop	312	147
endgame	114	4
foul	10	0
total	525	201

Result

Final score

525 – 201

Prediction correct · off by 92.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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