FIM District Troy Event presented by Aptiv Foundation

Qualification · Qualification 77

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

242.48 – 42.52

92%8%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

474 – 47

Prediction correct · off by 118 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 577.1 ±9.9

1498The Polar Pilots

Season APEX 250.1Event APEX 127.54Rank 6Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10612Cougear

Season APEX 77Event APEX 33.86Rank 16Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

469Las Guerrillas

Season APEX 250Event APEX 81.08Rank 10Record 8-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 152.4 ±13.3

9528The Wolf Pack

Season APEX 64.5Event APEX 27.75Rank 20Record 6-5-1Status establishedConfidence 97

8364Rising Stars Academy - Nebulas

Season APEX 43.4Event APEX -2.42Rank 18Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5478Pershing Doughbots

Season APEX 44.5Event APEX 17.19Rank 30Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1498, 10612, 469

/ 100 compat

Projected

242.5 pts

~2.5 RP (district)

Teams: 1498, 10612, 469

Auto

57.4 24%

Teleop

138.9 58%

Endgame

41.4 17%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 58%

Supercharged: 10%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9528, 8364, 5478

/ 100 compat

Projected

42.5 pts

~0.7 RP (district)

Teams: 9528, 8364, 5478

Auto

25.8 68%

Teleop

-3.6 0%

Endgame

15.6 41%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 58%

Supercharged: 10%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.55 · Blue 0.7

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score242.5pts

Blue projected score42.5pts

Red win probability92%

Event bonus sample202alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 58%, blue 49%

Supercharged bonusred 10%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 200
Score range: 11–274
Upset likelihood: 8%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 521 vs event baseline 180.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

577.1Season APEX152.4

57.4Auto25.8

138.9Teleop-3.6

41.4Endgame15.6

19Consistency41

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	105	18
teleop	298	20
endgame	71	9
foul	0	0
total	474	47

Result

Final score

474 – 47

Prediction correct · off by 118 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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