FIM District Troy Event presented by Aptiv Foundation

Qualification · Qualification 76

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

84.18 – 226.68

15%85%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

58 – 251

Prediction correct · off by 25.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 342.7 ±12.8

9618Tronarchs

Season APEX 42Event APEX 34.31Rank 42Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5197Northwestern High

Season APEX 73.6Event APEX 19.82Rank 31Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

11493Pixel Knights

Season APEX 227.1Event APEX 30.05Rank 13Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 397 ±12.4

201The FEDS

Season APEX 248.5Event APEX 172.61Rank 2Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3302TurboTrojans

Season APEX 52.7Event APEX 30.21Rank 24Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

11361ORA Raven Bots

Season APEX 95.8Event APEX 23.86Rank 25Record 5-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9618, 5197, 11493

/ 100 compat

Projected

84.2 pts

~0.8 RP (district)

Teams: 9618, 5197, 11493

Auto

24.7 27%

Teleop

37.0 41%

Endgame

28.4 32%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 51%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 201, 3302, 11361

/ 100 compat

Projected

226.7 pts

~2.4 RP (district)

Teams: 201, 3302, 11361

Auto

33.6 15%

Teleop

135.4 59%

Endgame

59.2 26%

Strengths

· 201 anchors offense

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 51%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.85 · Blue 2.4

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score84.2pts

Blue projected score226.7pts

Red win probability15%

Event bonus sample202alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 51%, blue 61%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 5%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -142.5
Score range: 51–260
Upset likelihood: 15%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 309 vs event baseline 180.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

342.7Season APEX397

24.7Auto33.6

37Teleop135.4

28.4Endgame59.2

14Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	22	40
teleop	22	137
endgame	14	74
foul	0	0
total	58	251

Result

Final score

58 – 251

Prediction correct · off by 25.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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