FIM District Troy Event presented by Aptiv Foundation

Qualification · Qualification 75

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

211.37 – 233.7

43%57%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

135 – 274

Prediction correct · off by 58.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 399.1 ±11.7

5527Cyber Phoenix

Season APEX 71.7Event APEX 51.67Rank 19Record 5-6-1Status establishedConfidence 97

3175Knight Vision

Season APEX 224.1Event APEX 71.83Rank 9Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5860Full Metal Muskrats

Season APEX 103.3Event APEX 87.87Rank 15Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 385.5 ±11.7

5436Cyber Cats

Season APEX 91.9Event APEX 36.77Rank 35Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4998TESLA

Season APEX 47.1Event APEX 9.33Rank 37Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2851Crevolution

Season APEX 246.5Event APEX 187.6Rank 3Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5527, 3175, 5860

/ 100 compat

Projected

211.4 pts

~1.6 RP (district)

Teams: 5527, 3175, 5860

Auto

27.5 13%

Teleop

127.7 62%

Endgame

50.8 25%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 64%

Supercharged: 6%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5436, 4998, 2851

/ 100 compat

Projected

233.7 pts

~1.8 RP (district)

Teams: 5436, 4998, 2851

Auto

47.3 20%

Teleop

124.2 53%

Endgame

64.0 27%

Strengths

· 2851 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 64%

Supercharged: 6%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.58 · Blue 1.81

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score211.4pts

Blue projected score233.7pts

Red win probability43%

Event bonus sample202alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 64%, blue 60%

Supercharged bonusred 6%, blue 6%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -22.3
Score range: 179–266
Upset likelihood: 43%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 409 vs event baseline 180.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

399.1Season APEX385.5

27.5Auto47.3

127.7Teleop124.2

50.8Endgame64

6Consistency48

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	36	46
teleop	84	103
endgame	15	45
foul	0	80
total	135	274

Result

Final score

135 – 274

Prediction correct · off by 58.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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