FIM District Troy Event presented by Aptiv Foundation

Qualification · Qualification 74

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

142.12 – 78.45

69%31%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

164 – 48

Prediction correct · off by 26.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 245.7 ±12.7

8728Argonauts

Season APEX 129.1Event APEX 103.66Rank 11Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

11486Chesterton Saints

Season APEX 66.8Event APEX 17.07Rank 29Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9679Madison Eagles

Season APEX 49.8Event APEX 21.39Rank 27Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 121 ±13.9

7813New Haven RoboRaptors

Season APEX 41Event APEX 19.26Rank 26Record 5-6-1Status establishedConfidence 97

10665Unibots

Season APEX 39.6Event APEX 25.59Rank 21Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5065Knights #5065

Season APEX 40.4Event APEX 33.6Rank 33Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 8728, 11486, 9679

/ 100 compat

Projected

142.1 pts

~2.0 RP (district)

Teams: 8728, 11486, 9679

Auto

23.1 17%

Teleop

80.8 59%

Endgame

32.0 24%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 52%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 7813, 10665, 5065

/ 100 compat

Projected

78.5 pts

~1.2 RP (district)

Teams: 7813, 10665, 5065

Auto

19.8 29%

Teleop

39.3 58%

Endgame

8.8 13%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 52%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.96 · Blue 1.19

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score142.1pts

Blue projected score78.5pts

Red win probability69%

Event bonus sample202alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 52%, blue 53%

Supercharged bonusred 4%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 63.7
Score range: 45–175
Upset likelihood: 31%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 212 vs event baseline 181.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

245.7Season APEX121

23.1Auto19.8

80.8Teleop39.3

32Endgame8.8

0Consistency21

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	32	14
teleop	83	20
endgame	49	14
foul	0	0
total	164	48

Result

Final score

164 – 48

Prediction correct · off by 26.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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