FIM District Troy Event presented by Aptiv Foundation

Qualification · Qualification 73

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

219.87 – 167.37

66%34%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

144 – 200

Prediction missed · off by 54.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 393 ±11.1

9651Ecorse Robo Raiders

Season APEX 71.9Event APEX 12.49Rank 38Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

33Killer Bees

Season APEX 256.8Event APEX 175.32Rank 5Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7762AutoPilots

Season APEX 64.3Event APEX 32.06Rank 40Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 332.9 ±11.6

5531Orange Crush

Season APEX 89.8Event APEX 44.86Rank 12Record 8-3-1Status establishedConfidence 97

4384Benzene Bots

Season APEX 89.5Event APEX 28.24Rank 32Record 4-7-1Status establishedConfidence 97

226Hammerheads

Season APEX 153.6Event APEX 94.27Rank 7Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9651, 33, 7762

/ 100 compat

Projected

219.9 pts

~1.9 RP (district)

Teams: 9651, 33, 7762

Auto

43.1 20%

Teleop

126.5 59%

Endgame

44.2 21%

Strengths

· 33 anchors offense

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 55%

Supercharged: 6%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5531, 4384, 226

/ 100 compat

Projected

167.4 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 5531, 4384, 226

Auto

14.2 8%

Teleop

107.3 64%

Endgame

47.1 28%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 55%

Supercharged: 6%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.95 · Blue 1.36

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score219.9pts

Blue projected score167.4pts

Red win probability66%

Event bonus sample202alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 55%, blue 57%

Supercharged bonusred 6%, blue 8%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 52.5
Score range: 134–253
Upset likelihood: 34%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 344 vs event baseline 181.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

393Season APEX332.9

43.1Auto14.2

126.5Teleop107.3

44.2Endgame47.1

62Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	24	32
teleop	91	129
endgame	29	19
foul	0	20
total	144	200

Result

Final score

144 – 200

Prediction missed · off by 54.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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