FIM District Troy Event presented by Aptiv Foundation

Qualification · Qualification 72

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

57.47 – 212.32

13%87%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

21 – 350

Prediction correct · off by 87.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 135.1 ±12.7

8115Platinum Peacocks

Season APEX 47Event APEX 32.95Rank 34Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5478Pershing Doughbots

Season APEX 44.5Event APEX 19.36Rank 30Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

7716JLW Formula 01

Season APEX 43.6Event APEX 5.16Rank 43Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 444.3 ±11.2

7188SaddleBots

Season APEX 151.5Event APEX 51.07Rank 14Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9245Laker Dreadnoughts

Season APEX 228.3Event APEX 147.52Rank 8Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9528The Wolf Pack

Season APEX 64.5Event APEX 13.73Rank 20Record 6-5-1Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 8115, 5478, 7716

/ 100 compat

Projected

57.5 pts

~0.8 RP (district)

Teams: 8115, 5478, 7716

Auto

24.5 49%

Teleop

3.7 7%

Endgame

22.1 44%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 52%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 7188, 9245, 9528

/ 100 compat

Projected

212.3 pts

~2.5 RP (district)

Teams: 7188, 9245, 9528

Auto

49.7 24%

Teleop

103.7 50%

Endgame

53.3 26%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 52%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.82 · Blue 2.47

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score57.5pts

Blue projected score212.3pts

Red win probability13%

Event bonus sample202alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 52%, blue 65%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 6%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -154.8
Score range: 24–245
Upset likelihood: 13%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 371 vs event baseline 181.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

135.1Season APEX444.3

24.5Auto49.7

3.7Teleop103.7

22.1Endgame53.3

5Consistency92

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	15	48
teleop	2	230
endgame	4	72
foul	0	0
total	21	350

Result

Final score

21 – 350

Prediction correct · off by 87.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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