FIM District Troy Event presented by Aptiv Foundation

Qualification · Qualification 71

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

52.41 – 75.06

43%57%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

82 – 67

Prediction missed · off by 18.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 150.9 ±13.3

10652Mechanical MacGyvers

Season APEX 65.5Event APEX 27.45Rank 28Record 4-7-1Status establishedConfidence 97

9618Tronarchs

Season APEX 42Event APEX 31.27Rank 42Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8364Rising Stars Academy - Nebulas

Season APEX 43.4Event APEX -6.31Rank 18Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 226 ±13.3

10612Cougear

Season APEX 77Event APEX 35.46Rank 16Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4768Cody "The Green Comet"

Season APEX 63.7Event APEX 14.08Rank 41Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4961Shock and Awe-sum

Season APEX 85.3Event APEX 25.52Rank 23Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10652, 9618, 8364

/ 100 compat

Projected

52.4 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 10652, 9618, 8364

Auto

20.4 40%

Teleop

9.9 20%

Endgame

20.2 40%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 43%

Supercharged: 8%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 10612, 4768, 4961

/ 100 compat

Projected

75.1 pts

~1.7 RP (district)

Teams: 10612, 4768, 4961

Auto

21.1 29%

Teleop

37.7 51%

Endgame

15.2 21%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 43%

Supercharged: 8%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.39 · Blue 1.72

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score52.4pts

Blue projected score75.1pts

Red win probability43%

Event bonus sample202alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 43%, blue 47%

Supercharged bonusred 8%, blue 9%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -22.7
Score range: 19–108
Upset likelihood: 43%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 149 vs event baseline 182.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

150.9Season APEX226

20.4Auto21.1

9.9Teleop37.7

20.2Endgame15.2

39Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	26	16
teleop	25	33
endgame	31	18
foul	0	0
total	82	67

Result

Final score

82 – 67

Prediction missed · off by 18.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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