FIM District Troy Event presented by Aptiv Foundation

Qualification · Qualification 70

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

112.74 – 241.3

17%83%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

133 – 249

Prediction correct · off by 14 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 216.3 ±13.3

5436Cyber Cats

Season APEX 91.9Event APEX 32.13Rank 35Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5527Cyber Phoenix

Season APEX 71.7Event APEX 48.96Rank 19Record 5-6-1Status establishedConfidence 97

3302TurboTrojans

Season APEX 52.7Event APEX 31.65Rank 24Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 569.4 ±11.2

11493Pixel Knights

Season APEX 227.1Event APEX 29.56Rank 13Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11361ORA Raven Bots

Season APEX 95.8Event APEX 25.93Rank 25Record 5-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2851Crevolution

Season APEX 246.5Event APEX 185.81Rank 3Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5436, 5527, 3302

/ 100 compat

Projected

112.7 pts

~1.0 RP (district)

Teams: 5436, 5527, 3302

Auto

40.7 35%

Teleop

44.7 38%

Endgame

31.2 27%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 56%

Supercharged: 7%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 11493, 11361, 2851

/ 100 compat

Projected

241.3 pts

~2.4 RP (district)

Teams: 11493, 11361, 2851

Auto

31.5 13%

Teleop

155.7 64%

Endgame

55.5 23%

Strengths

· 2851 anchors offense

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 56%

Supercharged: 7%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1 · Blue 2.36

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score112.7pts

Blue projected score241.3pts

Red win probability17%

Event bonus sample202alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 56%, blue 64%

Supercharged bonusred 7%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -128.6
Score range: 80–274
Upset likelihood: 17%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 382 vs event baseline 182.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

216.3Season APEX569.4

40.7Auto31.5

44.7Teleop155.7

31.2Endgame55.5

0Consistency17

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	19	47
teleop	60	128
endgame	54	74
foul	0	0
total	133	249

Result

Final score

133 – 249

Prediction correct · off by 14 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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