FIM District Troy Event presented by Aptiv Foundation

Qualification · Qualification 69

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

127.89 – 443.76

2%98%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

153 – 554

Prediction correct · off by 67.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 340.8 ±12.4

5467RoboTractors

Season APEX 43.6Event APEX -8.85Rank 39Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4998TESLA

Season APEX 47.1Event APEX 11.61Rank 37Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1498The Polar Pilots

Season APEX 250.1Event APEX 125.13Rank 6Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 615 ±9.9

4362Gems

Season APEX 237.4Event APEX 191.08Rank 4Record 9-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

201The FEDS

Season APEX 248.5Event APEX 159.56Rank 2Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8728Argonauts

Season APEX 129.1Event APEX 93.12Rank 11Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5467, 4998, 1498

/ 100 compat

Projected

127.9 pts

~0.6 RP (district)

Teams: 5467, 4998, 1498

Auto

40.9 32%

Teleop

66.0 52%

Endgame

19.5 15%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 53%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4362, 201, 8728

/ 100 compat

Projected

443.8 pts

~2.8 RP (district)

Teams: 4362, 201, 8728

Auto

57.8 13%

Teleop

262.6 60%

Endgame

117.2 27%

Strengths

· 4362 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 53%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.63 · Blue 2.81

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score127.9pts

Blue projected score443.8pts

Red win probability2%

Event bonus sample202alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 53%, blue 67%

Supercharged bonusred 4%, blue 16%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -315.9
Score range: 96–476
Upset likelihood: 2%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 707 vs event baseline 180.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

340.8Season APEX615

40.9Auto57.8

66Teleop262.6

19.5Endgame117.2

50Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	14	97
teleop	113	315
endgame	6	142
foul	20	0
total	153	554

Result

Final score

153 – 554

Prediction correct · off by 67.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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