FIM District Troy Event presented by Aptiv Foundation

Qualification · Qualification 68

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

252.42 – 174.7

72%28%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

227 – 182

Prediction correct · off by 16.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 396.4 ±11.1

5531Orange Crush

Season APEX 89.8Event APEX 48.81Rank 12Record 8-3-1Status establishedConfidence 97

9679Madison Eagles

Season APEX 49.8Event APEX 22.6Rank 27Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

33Killer Bees

Season APEX 256.8Event APEX 181.01Rank 5Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 540.9 ±10.7

3175Knight Vision

Season APEX 224.1Event APEX 76.16Rank 9Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

469Las Guerrillas

Season APEX 250Event APEX 82.26Rank 10Record 8-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11486Chesterton Saints

Season APEX 66.8Event APEX 16.28Rank 29Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5531, 9679, 33

/ 100 compat

Projected

252.4 pts

~2.0 RP (district)

Teams: 5531, 9679, 33

Auto

32.8 13%

Teleop

163.3 64%

Endgame

59.7 23%

Strengths

· 33 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 50%

Supercharged: 6%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3175, 469, 11486

/ 100 compat

Projected

174.7 pts

~1.3 RP (district)

Teams: 3175, 469, 11486

Auto

30.5 17%

Teleop

108.0 62%

Endgame

35.8 21%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 50%

Supercharged: 6%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.03 · Blue 1.29

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score252.4pts

Blue projected score174.7pts

Red win probability72%

Event bonus sample202alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 50%, blue 66%

Supercharged bonusred 6%, blue 5%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 77.7
Score range: 143–284
Upset likelihood: 28%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 409 vs event baseline 179.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

396.4Season APEX540.9

32.8Auto30.5

163.3Teleop108

59.7Endgame35.8

24Consistency14

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	17	32
teleop	129	103
endgame	56	42
foul	25	5
total	227	182

Result

Final score

227 – 182

Prediction correct · off by 16.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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