FIM District Troy Event presented by Aptiv Foundation

Qualification · Qualification 67

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

109.39 – 180.72

29%71%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

121 – 235

Prediction correct · off by 32.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 315.7 ±11.7

573Mech Warriors

Season APEX 210.4Event APEX 60.09Rank 22Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7762AutoPilots

Season APEX 64.3Event APEX 32.26Rank 40Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

7813New Haven RoboRaptors

Season APEX 41Event APEX 17.04Rank 26Record 5-6-1Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 401.3 ±12.4

9747ElectroPanthers II

Season APEX 99.4Event APEX 22.24Rank 17Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5197Northwestern High

Season APEX 73.6Event APEX 14.76Rank 31Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9245Laker Dreadnoughts

Season APEX 228.3Event APEX 143.72Rank 8Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 573, 7762, 7813

/ 100 compat

Projected

109.4 pts

~1.2 RP (district)

Teams: 573, 7762, 7813

Auto

13.2 13%

Teleop

72.8 71%

Endgame

16.8 16%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 57%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9747, 5197, 9245

/ 100 compat

Projected

180.7 pts

~2.1 RP (district)

Teams: 9747, 5197, 9245

Auto

48.5 28%

Teleop

88.6 51%

Endgame

36.5 21%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 57%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.2 · Blue 2.12

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score109.4pts

Blue projected score180.7pts

Red win probability29%

Event bonus sample202alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 57%, blue 64%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -71.3
Score range: 77–213
Upset likelihood: 29%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 356 vs event baseline 180.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

315.7Season APEX401.3

13.2Auto48.5

72.8Teleop88.6

16.8Endgame36.5

40Consistency51

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	24	59
teleop	52	114
endgame	40	57
foul	5	5
total	121	235

Result

Final score

121 – 235

Prediction correct · off by 32.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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