FIM District Troy Event presented by Aptiv Foundation

Qualification · Qualification 65

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

53.61 – 140.11

25%75%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

41 – 47

Prediction correct · off by 52.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 228.7 ±13.3

8364Rising Stars Academy - Nebulas

Season APEX 43.4Event APEX -5.3Rank 18Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

11361ORA Raven Bots

Season APEX 95.8Event APEX 26.49Rank 25Record 5-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4384Benzene Bots

Season APEX 89.5Event APEX 32.42Rank 32Record 4-7-1Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 157.6 ±13.9

5527Cyber Phoenix

Season APEX 71.7Event APEX 59.57Rank 19Record 5-6-1Status establishedConfidence 97

5065Knights #5065

Season APEX 40.4Event APEX 41.78Rank 33Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9252Wingspan

Season APEX 45.5Event APEX 38.76Rank 36Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 8364, 11361, 4384

/ 100 compat

Projected

53.6 pts

~1.1 RP (district)

Teams: 8364, 11361, 4384

Auto

14.9 26%

Teleop

17.2 30%

Endgame

24.8 44%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 49%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5527, 5065, 9252

/ 100 compat

Projected

140.1 pts

~2.1 RP (district)

Teams: 5527, 5065, 9252

Auto

29.1 23%

Teleop

61.9 48%

Endgame

38.0 29%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 49%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.07 · Blue 2.07

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score53.6pts

Blue projected score140.1pts

Red win probability25%

Event bonus sample202alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 49%, blue 53%

Supercharged bonusred 5%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -86.5
Score range: 22–172
Upset likelihood: 25%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Close match

Combined score 88 vs event baseline 180.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

228.7Season APEX157.6

14.9Auto29.1

17.2Teleop61.9

24.8Endgame38

40Consistency39

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	19	14
teleop	17	23
endgame	0	10
foul	5	0
total	41	47

Result

Final score

41 – 47

Prediction correct · off by 52.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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