FIM District Troy Event presented by Aptiv Foundation

Qualification · Qualification 63

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

262.12 – 252.52

53%47%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

225 – 346

Prediction missed · off by 65.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 475.1 ±11.2

11486Chesterton Saints

Season APEX 66.8Event APEX 20.57Rank 29Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

33Killer Bees

Season APEX 256.8Event APEX 187.13Rank 5Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7188SaddleBots

Season APEX 151.5Event APEX 54.42Rank 14Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 545.5 ±9.9

469Las Guerrillas

Season APEX 250Event APEX 74.07Rank 10Record 8-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8115Platinum Peacocks

Season APEX 47Event APEX 27.18Rank 34Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

201The FEDS

Season APEX 248.5Event APEX 151.27Rank 2Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 11486, 33, 7188

/ 100 compat

Projected

262.1 pts

~1.8 RP (district)

Teams: 11486, 33, 7188

Auto

39.6 15%

Teleop

155.8 60%

Endgame

65.8 25%

Strengths

· 33 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 64%

Supercharged: 6%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 469, 8115, 201

/ 100 compat

Projected

252.5 pts

~1.6 RP (district)

Teams: 469, 8115, 201

Auto

46.5 18%

Teleop

146.4 58%

Endgame

58.7 23%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 64%

Supercharged: 6%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.78 · Blue 1.64

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score262.1pts

Blue projected score252.5pts

Red win probability53%

Event bonus sample202alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 64%, blue 60%

Supercharged bonusred 6%, blue 8%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 9.6
Score range: 221–294
Upset likelihood: 47%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 571 vs event baseline 178.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

475.1Season APEX545.5

39.6Auto46.5

155.8Teleop146.4

65.8Endgame58.7

86Consistency35

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	44	16
teleop	125	181
endgame	56	134
foul	0	15
total	225	346

Result

Final score

225 – 346

Prediction missed · off by 65.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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