FIM District Troy Event presented by Aptiv Foundation

Qualification · Qualification 62

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

57.03 – 140.14

26%74%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

53 – 142

Prediction correct · off by 2.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 162.6 ±13.3

10612Cougear

Season APEX 77Event APEX 34.93Rank 16Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9618Tronarchs

Season APEX 42Event APEX 30.69Rank 42Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5467RoboTractors

Season APEX 43.6Event APEX -8.59Rank 39Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 387.5 ±11.7

5197Northwestern High

Season APEX 73.6Event APEX 16.55Rank 31Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5531Orange Crush

Season APEX 89.8Event APEX 48.31Rank 12Record 8-3-1Status establishedConfidence 97

3175Knight Vision

Season APEX 224.1Event APEX 75.28Rank 9Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10612, 9618, 5467

/ 100 compat

Projected

57 pts

~1.0 RP (district)

Teams: 10612, 9618, 5467

Auto

21.1 40%

Teleop

28.9 55%

Endgame

2.3 4%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 40%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5197, 5531, 3175

/ 100 compat

Projected

140.1 pts

~2.2 RP (district)

Teams: 5197, 5531, 3175

Auto

31.0 21%

Teleop

77.9 53%

Endgame

38.7 26%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 40%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1 · Blue 2.18

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score57pts

Blue projected score140.1pts

Red win probability26%

Event bonus sample202alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 40%, blue 63%

Supercharged bonusred 5%, blue 6%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -83.1
Score range: 25–172
Upset likelihood: 26%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 195 vs event baseline 179.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

162.6Season APEX387.5

21.1Auto31

28.9Teleop77.9

2.3Endgame38.7

17Consistency8

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	24	19
teleop	20	94
endgame	9	29
foul	0	0
total	53	142

Result

Final score

53 – 142

Prediction correct · off by 2.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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