FIM District Troy Event presented by Aptiv Foundation

Qualification · Qualification 61

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

375.35 – 113.03

96%4%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

266 – 194

Prediction correct · off by 95.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 502.6 ±12.4

7769The CREW

Season APEX 385.4Event APEX 306.21Rank 1Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9528The Wolf Pack

Season APEX 64.5Event APEX 27.19Rank 20Record 6-5-1Status establishedConfidence 97

3302TurboTrojans

Season APEX 52.7Event APEX 41.95Rank 24Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 281.6 ±12.2

4768Cody "The Green Comet"

Season APEX 63.7Event APEX 5.42Rank 41Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

7762AutoPilots

Season APEX 64.3Event APEX 29.73Rank 40Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

226Hammerheads

Season APEX 153.6Event APEX 77.88Rank 7Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 7769, 9528, 3302

/ 100 compat

Projected

375.3 pts

~2.6 RP (district)

Teams: 7769, 9528, 3302

Auto

81.5 22%

Teleop

207.8 56%

Endgame

81.7 22%

Strengths

· 7769 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 59%

Supercharged: 9%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4768, 7762, 226

/ 100 compat

Projected

113 pts

~0.7 RP (district)

Teams: 4768, 7762, 226

Auto

12.0 11%

Teleop

68.8 64%

Endgame

26.1 24%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 59%

Supercharged: 9%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.62 · Blue 0.7

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score375.3pts

Blue projected score113pts

Red win probability96%

Event bonus sample202alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 59%, blue 55%

Supercharged bonusred 9%, blue 6%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 262.3
Score range: 81–407
Upset likelihood: 4%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 460 vs event baseline 177.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

502.6Season APEX281.6

81.5Auto12

207.8Teleop68.8

81.7Endgame26.1

15Consistency34

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	82	31
teleop	120	125
endgame	59	33
foul	5	5
total	266	194

Result

Final score

266 – 194

Prediction correct · off by 95.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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