FIM District Troy Event presented by Aptiv Foundation

Qualification · Qualification 60

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

88.66 – 146.83

33%67%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

141 – 173

Prediction correct · off by 39.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 341.9 ±11.7

573Mech Warriors

Season APEX 210.4Event APEX 50.96Rank 22Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5436Cyber Cats

Season APEX 91.9Event APEX 29.31Rank 35Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10665Unibots

Season APEX 39.6Event APEX 8.39Rank 21Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 335.6 ±11.7

1498The Polar Pilots

Season APEX 250.1Event APEX 119.22Rank 6Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5478Pershing Doughbots

Season APEX 44.5Event APEX 12.32Rank 30Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

7813New Haven RoboRaptors

Season APEX 41Event APEX 15.29Rank 26Record 5-6-1Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 573, 5436, 10665

/ 100 compat

Projected

88.7 pts

~1.3 RP (district)

Teams: 573, 5436, 10665

Auto

21.2 26%

Teleop

27.3 34%

Endgame

31.9 40%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 56%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1498, 5478, 7813

/ 100 compat

Projected

146.8 pts

~2.0 RP (district)

Teams: 1498, 5478, 7813

Auto

42.5 31%

Teleop

67.6 49%

Endgame

28.2 20%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 56%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.26 · Blue 2.03

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score88.7pts

Blue projected score146.8pts

Red win probability33%

Event bonus sample202alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 56%, blue 62%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -58.2
Score range: 57–179
Upset likelihood: 33%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 314 vs event baseline 177.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

341.9Season APEX335.6

21.2Auto42.5

27.3Teleop67.6

31.9Endgame28.2

26Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	26	45
teleop	87	99
endgame	23	29
foul	5	0
total	141	173

Result

Final score

141 – 173

Prediction correct · off by 39.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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