FIM District Troy Event presented by Aptiv Foundation

Qualification · Qualification 59

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

74.28 – 145.44

29%71%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

92 – 248

Prediction correct · off by 60.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 216.8 ±13.3

9747ElectroPanthers II

Season APEX 99.4Event APEX 15.47Rank 17Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9651Ecorse Robo Raiders

Season APEX 71.9Event APEX 17.63Rank 38Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9252Wingspan

Season APEX 45.5Event APEX 41.18Rank 36Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 312.3 ±12.4

9245Laker Dreadnoughts

Season APEX 228.3Event APEX 125.04Rank 8Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7716JLW Formula 01

Season APEX 43.6Event APEX 1.68Rank 43Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5065Knights #5065

Season APEX 40.4Event APEX 18.72Rank 33Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9747, 9651, 9252

/ 100 compat

Projected

74.3 pts

~1.2 RP (district)

Teams: 9747, 9651, 9252

Auto

23.9 36%

Teleop

23.4 35%

Endgame

19.4 29%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 56%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9245, 7716, 5065

/ 100 compat

Projected

145.4 pts

~2.0 RP (district)

Teams: 9245, 7716, 5065

Auto

45.0 32%

Teleop

64.8 46%

Endgame

29.9 21%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 56%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.19 · Blue 2.02

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score74.3pts

Blue projected score145.4pts

Red win probability29%

Event bonus sample202alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 56%, blue 55%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -71.2
Score range: 42–177
Upset likelihood: 29%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 340 vs event baseline 177.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

216.8Season APEX312.3

23.9Auto45

23.4Teleop64.8

19.4Endgame29.9

37Consistency45

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	29	56
teleop	38	122
endgame	25	40
foul	0	30
total	92	248

Result

Final score

92 – 248

Prediction correct · off by 60.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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