FIM District Troy Event presented by Aptiv Foundation

Qualification · Qualification 58

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

309.63 – 126.66

91%9%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

256 – 145

Prediction correct · off by 36 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 546.3 ±9.9

469Las Guerrillas

Season APEX 250Event APEX 75.65Rank 10Record 8-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9679Madison Eagles

Season APEX 49.8Event APEX 35.04Rank 27Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2851Crevolution

Season APEX 246.5Event APEX 198.94Rank 3Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 278.1 ±12.7

4961Shock and Awe-sum

Season APEX 85.3Event APEX 25.83Rank 23Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5860Full Metal Muskrats

Season APEX 103.3Event APEX 73.97Rank 15Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4384Benzene Bots

Season APEX 89.5Event APEX 26.86Rank 32Record 4-7-1Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 469, 9679, 2851

/ 100 compat

Projected

309.6 pts

~2.4 RP (district)

Teams: 469, 9679, 2851

Auto

55.8 18%

Teleop

191.4 62%

Endgame

60.3 20%

Strengths

· 2851 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 55%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4961, 5860, 4384

/ 100 compat

Projected

126.7 pts

~0.8 RP (district)

Teams: 4961, 5860, 4384

Auto

21.8 18%

Teleop

72.1 59%

Endgame

29.2 24%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 55%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.44 · Blue 0.81

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score309.6pts

Blue projected score126.7pts

Red win probability91%

Event bonus sample202alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 55%, blue 56%

Supercharged bonusred 5%, blue 5%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 183
Score range: 95–342
Upset likelihood: 9%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 401 vs event baseline 177.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

546.3Season APEX278.1

55.8Auto21.8

191.4Teleop72.1

60.3Endgame29.2

52Consistency5

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	37	24
teleop	160	70
endgame	59	46
foul	0	5
total	256	145

Result

Final score

256 – 145

Prediction correct · off by 36 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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