FIM District Troy Event presented by Aptiv Foundation

Qualification · Qualification 57

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

182.13 – 242.3

32%68%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

162 – 242

Prediction correct · off by 10.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 314.7 ±12.7

8728Argonauts

Season APEX 129.1Event APEX 99.48Rank 11Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5531Orange Crush

Season APEX 89.8Event APEX 56.83Rank 12Record 8-3-1Status establishedConfidence 97

11361ORA Raven Bots

Season APEX 95.8Event APEX 25.82Rank 25Record 5-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 351.2 ±11.7

8115Platinum Peacocks

Season APEX 47Event APEX 30.39Rank 34Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

11486Chesterton Saints

Season APEX 66.8Event APEX 20.12Rank 29Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4362Gems

Season APEX 237.4Event APEX 191.79Rank 4Record 9-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 8728, 5531, 11361

/ 100 compat

Projected

182.1 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 8728, 5531, 11361

Auto

24.0 13%

Teleop

133.3 71%

Endgame

29.8 16%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 64%

Supercharged: 6%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 8115, 11486, 4362

/ 100 compat

Projected

242.3 pts

~2.0 RP (district)

Teams: 8115, 11486, 4362

Auto

50.2 21%

Teleop

105.1 44%

Endgame

82.9 35%

Strengths

· 4362 anchors offense
· Reliable endgame stack
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 64%

Supercharged: 6%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.36 · Blue 2.04

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score182.1pts

Blue projected score242.3pts

Red win probability32%

Event bonus sample202alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 64%, blue 59%

Supercharged bonusred 6%, blue 7%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -60.2
Score range: 150–274
Upset likelihood: 32%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 404 vs event baseline 176.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

314.7Season APEX351.2

24Auto50.2

133.3Teleop105.1

29.8Endgame82.9

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	21	35
teleop	78	167
endgame	63	40
foul	0	0
total	162	242

Result

Final score

162 – 242

Prediction correct · off by 10.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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