FIM District Troy Event presented by Aptiv Foundation

Qualification · Qualification 56

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

90.4 – 136.26

36%64%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

157 – 175

Prediction correct · off by 52.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 442.9 ±11

7762AutoPilots

Season APEX 64.3Event APEX 22.3Rank 40Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

7188SaddleBots

Season APEX 151.5Event APEX 50.55Rank 14Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11493Pixel Knights

Season APEX 227.1Event APEX 17.55Rank 13Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 421.1 ±11.2

8364Rising Stars Academy - Nebulas

Season APEX 43.4Event APEX -1.52Rank 18Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3175Knight Vision

Season APEX 224.1Event APEX 62.55Rank 9Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

226Hammerheads

Season APEX 153.6Event APEX 75.23Rank 7Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 7762, 7188, 11493

/ 100 compat

Projected

90.4 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 7762, 7188, 11493

Auto

17.0 20%

Teleop

54.6 63%

Endgame

14.9 17%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 60%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 8364, 3175, 226

/ 100 compat

Projected

136.3 pts

~2.0 RP (district)

Teams: 8364, 3175, 226

Auto

2.0 1%

Teleop

91.3 67%

Endgame

42.9 31%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 60%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.38 · Blue 2

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score90.4pts

Blue projected score136.3pts

Red win probability36%

Event bonus sample202alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 60%, blue 59%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 11%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -45.9
Score range: 58–168
Upset likelihood: 36%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 332 vs event baseline 177.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

442.9Season APEX421.1

17Auto2

54.6Teleop91.3

14.9Endgame42.9

91Consistency42

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	26	48
teleop	72	104
endgame	54	18
foul	5	5
total	157	175

Result

Final score

157 – 175

Prediction correct · off by 52.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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