FIM District Troy Event presented by Aptiv Foundation

Qualification · Qualification 55

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

168.8 – 412.67

5%95%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

224 – 388

Prediction correct · off by 39.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 336.6 ±12.4

4998TESLA

Season APEX 47.1Event APEX 8.52Rank 37Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

7813New Haven RoboRaptors

Season APEX 41Event APEX 7.68Rank 26Record 5-6-1Status establishedConfidence 97

201The FEDS

Season APEX 248.5Event APEX 152.6Rank 2Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 534.1 ±11.7

10612Cougear

Season APEX 77Event APEX 38.58Rank 16Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5527Cyber Phoenix

Season APEX 71.7Event APEX 64.11Rank 19Record 5-6-1Status establishedConfidence 97

7769The CREW

Season APEX 385.4Event APEX 309.98Rank 1Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4998, 7813, 201

/ 100 compat

Projected

168.8 pts

~0.7 RP (district)

Teams: 4998, 7813, 201

Auto

18.4 11%

Teleop

115.5 68%

Endgame

36.8 22%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 57%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 10612, 5527, 7769

/ 100 compat

Projected

412.7 pts

~2.6 RP (district)

Teams: 10612, 5527, 7769

Auto

68.2 17%

Teleop

247.6 61%

Endgame

87.9 22%

Strengths

· 7769 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 57%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.72 · Blue 2.6

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score168.8pts

Blue projected score412.7pts

Red win probability5%

Event bonus sample202alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 57%, blue 53%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 14%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -243.9
Score range: 138–444
Upset likelihood: 5%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 612 vs event baseline 174.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

336.6Season APEX534.1

18.4Auto68.2

115.5Teleop247.6

36.8Endgame87.9

50Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	42	100
teleop	127	215
endgame	55	73
foul	0	0
total	224	388

Result

Final score

224 – 388

Prediction correct · off by 39.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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