FIM District Troy Event presented by Aptiv Foundation

Qualification · Qualification 54

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

24.43 – 104.04

27%73%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

14 – 150

Prediction correct · off by 28.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 146.9 ±13.9

4768Cody "The Green Comet"

Season APEX 63.7Event APEX 10.74Rank 41Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10665Unibots

Season APEX 39.6Event APEX 8.99Rank 21Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

7716JLW Formula 01

Season APEX 43.6Event APEX 4.7Rank 43Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 329.5 ±12.4

5197Northwestern High

Season APEX 73.6Event APEX 17.28Rank 31Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

573Mech Warriors

Season APEX 210.4Event APEX 48.01Rank 22Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9252Wingspan

Season APEX 45.5Event APEX 38.75Rank 36Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4768, 10665, 7716

/ 100 compat

Projected

24.4 pts

~1.1 RP (district)

Teams: 4768, 10665, 7716

Auto

20.5 100%

Teleop

-11.9 0%

Endgame

8.3 49%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 47%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5197, 573, 9252

/ 100 compat

Projected

104 pts

~2.1 RP (district)

Teams: 5197, 573, 9252

Auto

25.7 26%

Teleop

35.3 35%

Endgame

38.8 39%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 47%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.06 · Blue 2.07

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score24.4pts

Blue projected score104pts

Red win probability27%

Event bonus sample202alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 47%, blue 57%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -79.6
Score range: -8–136
Upset likelihood: 27%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 164 vs event baseline 176.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

146.9Season APEX329.5

20.5Auto25.7

-11.9Teleop35.3

8.3Endgame38.8

44Consistency33

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	11	24
teleop	2	75
endgame	1	51
foul	0	0
total	14	150

Result

Final score

14 – 150

Prediction correct · off by 28.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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