FIM District Troy Event presented by Aptiv Foundation

Qualification · Qualification 53

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

285.2 – 173.35

80%20%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

281 – 177

Prediction correct · off by 3.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 394.3 ±11.1

5478Pershing Doughbots

Season APEX 44.5Event APEX 10.93Rank 30Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2851Crevolution

Season APEX 246.5Event APEX 198.87Rank 3Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5860Full Metal Muskrats

Season APEX 103.3Event APEX 75.4Rank 15Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 381.6 ±11.7

4384Benzene Bots

Season APEX 89.5Event APEX 27.74Rank 32Record 4-7-1Status establishedConfidence 97

1498The Polar Pilots

Season APEX 250.1Event APEX 118.89Rank 6Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9618Tronarchs

Season APEX 42Event APEX 26.72Rank 42Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5478, 2851, 5860

/ 100 compat

Projected

285.2 pts

~2.3 RP (district)

Teams: 5478, 2851, 5860

Auto

57.9 21%

Teleop

158.5 57%

Endgame

60.1 22%

Strengths

· 2851 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 65%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4384, 1498, 9618

/ 100 compat

Projected

173.4 pts

~1.0 RP (district)

Teams: 4384, 1498, 9618

Auto

54.5 31%

Teleop

85.5 49%

Endgame

36.1 20%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 65%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.3 · Blue 1.02

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score285.2pts

Blue projected score173.4pts

Red win probability80%

Event bonus sample202alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 65%, blue 51%

Supercharged bonusred 4%, blue 10%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 111.9
Score range: 141–317
Upset likelihood: 20%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 458 vs event baseline 175.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

394.3Season APEX381.6

57.9Auto54.5

158.5Teleop85.5

60.1Endgame36.1

17Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	42	25
teleop	138	86
endgame	81	66
foul	20	0
total	281	177

Result

Final score

281 – 177

Prediction correct · off by 3.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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