FIM District Troy Event presented by Aptiv Foundation

Qualification · Qualification 52

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

208.17 – 200.06

53%47%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

205 – 317

Prediction missed · off by 60.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 346.5 ±11.7

3302TurboTrojans

Season APEX 52.7Event APEX 48.99Rank 24Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10652Mechanical MacGyvers

Season APEX 65.5Event APEX 34.69Rank 28Record 4-7-1Status establishedConfidence 97

9245Laker Dreadnoughts

Season APEX 228.3Event APEX 124.49Rank 8Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 361.7 ±12.4

9528The Wolf Pack

Season APEX 64.5Event APEX 17.52Rank 20Record 6-5-1Status establishedConfidence 97

5065Knights #5065

Season APEX 40.4Event APEX 4.03Rank 33Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

33Killer Bees

Season APEX 256.8Event APEX 178.51Rank 5Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3302, 10652, 9245

/ 100 compat

Projected

208.2 pts

~1.8 RP (district)

Teams: 3302, 10652, 9245

Auto

39.0 19%

Teleop

111.7 55%

Endgame

51.3 25%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 60%

Supercharged: 9%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9528, 5065, 33

/ 100 compat

Projected

200.1 pts

~1.6 RP (district)

Teams: 9528, 5065, 33

Auto

27.4 14%

Teleop

128.6 64%

Endgame

45.4 23%

Strengths

· 33 anchors offense

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 60%

Supercharged: 9%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.75 · Blue 1.56

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score208.2pts

Blue projected score200.1pts

Red win probability53%

Event bonus sample202alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 60%, blue 55%

Supercharged bonusred 9%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 8.1
Score range: 169–239
Upset likelihood: 47%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 522 vs event baseline 173.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

346.5Season APEX361.7

39Auto27.4

111.7Teleop128.6

51.3Endgame45.4

42Consistency103

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	61	70
teleop	101	114
endgame	43	98
foul	0	35
total	205	317

Result

Final score

205 – 317

Prediction missed · off by 60.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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