FIM District Troy Event presented by Aptiv Foundation

Qualification · Qualification 51

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

51.84 – 38.18

54%46%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

58 – 65

Prediction missed · off by 16.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 192.6 ±13.3

9679Madison Eagles

Season APEX 49.8Event APEX 36.97Rank 27Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8364Rising Stars Academy - Nebulas

Season APEX 43.4Event APEX -1.39Rank 18Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9747ElectroPanthers II

Season APEX 99.4Event APEX 16.26Rank 17Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 207.4 ±12.7

5467RoboTractors

Season APEX 43.6Event APEX -4.97Rank 39Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9651Ecorse Robo Raiders

Season APEX 71.9Event APEX 15.06Rank 38Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5436Cyber Cats

Season APEX 91.9Event APEX 28.09Rank 35Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9679, 8364, 9747

/ 100 compat

Projected

51.8 pts

~1.6 RP (district)

Teams: 9679, 8364, 9747

Auto

12.8 32%

Teleop

9.6 24%

Endgame

17.3 44%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 44%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5467, 9651, 5436

/ 100 compat

Projected

38.2 pts

~1.5 RP (district)

Teams: 5467, 9651, 5436

Auto

29.5 89%

Teleop

3.0 9%

Endgame

0.5 2%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 44%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.58 · Blue 1.47

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score51.8pts

Blue projected score38.2pts

Red win probability54%

Event bonus sample202alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 44%, blue 49%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 5%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 13.7
Score range: 6–84
Upset likelihood: 46%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Close match

Combined score 123 vs event baseline 175.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

192.6Season APEX207.4

12.8Auto29.5

9.6Teleop3

17.3Endgame0.5

39Consistency13

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	17	22
teleop	24	37
endgame	17	6
foul	0	0
total	58	65

Result

Final score

58 – 65

Prediction missed · off by 16.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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