FIM District Troy Event presented by Aptiv Foundation

Qualification · Qualification 50

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

246.14 – 95.84

87%13%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

240 – 27

Prediction correct · off by 37.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 536.9 ±9.9

201The FEDS

Season APEX 248.5Event APEX 154.68Rank 2Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3175Knight Vision

Season APEX 224.1Event APEX 68.63Rank 9Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7762AutoPilots

Season APEX 64.3Event APEX 22.83Rank 40Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 173.3 ±13.3

4961Shock and Awe-sum

Season APEX 85.3Event APEX 37.62Rank 23Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8115Platinum Peacocks

Season APEX 47Event APEX 39.67Rank 34Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

7813New Haven RoboRaptors

Season APEX 41Event APEX 18.55Rank 26Record 5-6-1Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 201, 3175, 7762

/ 100 compat

Projected

246.1 pts

~2.4 RP (district)

Teams: 201, 3175, 7762

Auto

12.4 5%

Teleop

141.1 60%

Endgame

80.5 34%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 62%

Supercharged: 6%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4961, 8115, 7813

/ 100 compat

Projected

95.8 pts

~0.9 RP (district)

Teams: 4961, 8115, 7813

Auto

17.9 18%

Teleop

60.7 60%

Endgame

23.0 23%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 62%

Supercharged: 6%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.44 · Blue 0.9

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score246.1pts

Blue projected score95.8pts

Red win probability87%

Event bonus sample202alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 62%, blue 56%

Supercharged bonusred 6%, blue 5%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 150.3
Score range: 64–278
Upset likelihood: 13%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 267 vs event baseline 176.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

536.9Season APEX173.3

12.4Auto17.9

141.1Teleop60.7

80.5Endgame23

64Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	43	14
teleop	174	3
endgame	23	0
foul	0	10
total	240	27

Result

Final score

240 – 27

Prediction correct · off by 37.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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