FIM District Troy Event presented by Aptiv Foundation

Qualification · Qualification 5

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

101.47 – 337.4

5%95%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

32 – 398

Prediction correct · off by 65 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 218.2 ±13.9

5527Cyber Phoenix

Season APEX 71.7Event APEX 47.34Rank 19Record 5-6-1Status establishedConfidence 97

9747ElectroPanthers II

Season APEX 99.4Event APEX 35.61Rank 17Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4998TESLA

Season APEX 47.1Event APEX 18.52Rank 37Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 559.6 ±10.7

33Killer Bees

Season APEX 256.8Event APEX 180.07Rank 5Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1498The Polar Pilots

Season APEX 250.1Event APEX 130.24Rank 6Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3302TurboTrojans

Season APEX 52.7Event APEX 27.09Rank 24Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5527, 9747, 4998

/ 100 compat

Projected

101.5 pts

~0.7 RP (district)

Teams: 5527, 9747, 4998

Auto

17.0 18%

Teleop

55.8 60%

Endgame

20.2 22%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 57%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 33, 1498, 3302

/ 100 compat

Projected

337.4 pts

~2.7 RP (district)

Teams: 33, 1498, 3302

Auto

68.7 20%

Teleop

190.8 57%

Endgame

77.7 23%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 57%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.72 · Blue 2.68

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score101.5pts

Blue projected score337.4pts

Red win probability5%

Event bonus sample202alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 57%, blue 64%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 13%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -235.9
Score range: 65–373
Upset likelihood: 5%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 430 vs event baseline 201.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

218.2Season APEX559.6

17Auto68.7

55.8Teleop190.8

20.2Endgame77.7

42Consistency2

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	8	92
teleop	19	247
endgame	5	59
foul	0	0
total	32	398

Result

Final score

32 – 398

Prediction correct · off by 65 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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