FIM District Troy Event presented by Aptiv Foundation

Qualification · Qualification 48

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

108.91 – 18.59

75%25%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

235 – 160

Prediction correct · off by 133.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 426.9 ±11.7

5860Full Metal Muskrats

Season APEX 103.3Event APEX 58.41Rank 15Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

469Las Guerrillas

Season APEX 250Event APEX 50.06Rank 10Record 8-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5197Northwestern High

Season APEX 73.6Event APEX 0.44Rank 31Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 484.6 ±11.2

11493Pixel Knights

Season APEX 227.1Event APEX 4.93Rank 13Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

573Mech Warriors

Season APEX 210.4Event APEX 25.25Rank 22Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4998TESLA

Season APEX 47.1Event APEX -11.59Rank 37Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5860, 469, 5197

/ 100 compat

Projected

108.9 pts

~2.2 RP (district)

Teams: 5860, 469, 5197

Auto

52.4 50%

Teleop

34.2 33%

Endgame

17.2 17%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 63%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 11493, 573, 4998

/ 100 compat

Projected

18.6 pts

~1.1 RP (district)

Teams: 11493, 573, 4998

Auto

-0.9 0%

Teleop

21.5 99%

Endgame

1.2 6%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 63%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.19 · Blue 1.1

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score108.9pts

Blue projected score18.6pts

Red win probability75%

Event bonus sample202alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 63%, blue 57%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 90.3
Score range: -13–141
Upset likelihood: 25%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 395 vs event baseline 177.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

426.9Season APEX484.6

52.4Auto-0.9

34.2Teleop21.5

17.2Endgame1.2

54Consistency70

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	52	23
teleop	150	72
endgame	33	65
foul	0	0
total	235	160

Result

Final score

235 – 160

Prediction correct · off by 133.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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