FIM District Troy Event presented by Aptiv Foundation

Qualification · Qualification 47

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

162.12 – 372.56

7%93%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

220 – 386

Prediction correct · off by 35.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 337.5 ±12.4

9245Laker Dreadnoughts

Season APEX 228.3Event APEX 117.24Rank 8Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4768Cody "The Green Comet"

Season APEX 63.7Event APEX 23.35Rank 41Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9252Wingspan

Season APEX 45.5Event APEX 21.53Rank 36Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 586.4 ±9.9

5531Orange Crush

Season APEX 89.8Event APEX 52.11Rank 12Record 8-3-1Status establishedConfidence 97

2851Crevolution

Season APEX 246.5Event APEX 197.95Rank 3Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1498The Polar Pilots

Season APEX 250.1Event APEX 122.5Rank 6Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9245, 4768, 9252

/ 100 compat

Projected

162.1 pts

~0.8 RP (district)

Teams: 9245, 4768, 9252

Auto

41.7 26%

Teleop

78.1 49%

Endgame

39.1 25%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 55%

Supercharged: 6%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5531, 2851, 1498

/ 100 compat

Projected

372.6 pts

~2.7 RP (district)

Teams: 5531, 2851, 1498

Auto

76.3 20%

Teleop

233.3 62%

Endgame

69.2 18%

Strengths

· 2851 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 55%

Supercharged: 6%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.77 · Blue 2.66

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score162.1pts

Blue projected score372.6pts

Red win probability7%

Event bonus sample202alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 55%, blue 66%

Supercharged bonusred 6%, blue 11%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -210.4
Score range: 131–404
Upset likelihood: 7%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 606 vs event baseline 175.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

337.5Season APEX586.4

41.7Auto76.3

78.1Teleop233.3

39.1Endgame69.2

80Consistency11

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	37	67
teleop	107	234
endgame	76	85
foul	0	0
total	220	386

Result

Final score

220 – 386

Prediction correct · off by 35.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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