FIM District Troy Event presented by Aptiv Foundation

Qualification · Qualification 46

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

99.5 – 69.26

59%41%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

103 – 78

Prediction correct · off by 6.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 312.9 ±11.6

4384Benzene Bots

Season APEX 89.5Event APEX 26.17Rank 32Record 4-7-1Status establishedConfidence 97

9651Ecorse Robo Raiders

Season APEX 71.9Event APEX 15.57Rank 38Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

7188SaddleBots

Season APEX 151.5Event APEX 57.76Rank 14Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 163.1 ±13.9

3302TurboTrojans

Season APEX 52.7Event APEX 45.84Rank 24Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

11486Chesterton Saints

Season APEX 66.8Event APEX 29.08Rank 29Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5467RoboTractors

Season APEX 43.6Event APEX -5.66Rank 39Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4384, 9651, 7188

/ 100 compat

Projected

99.5 pts

~1.8 RP (district)

Teams: 4384, 9651, 7188

Auto

32.6 31%

Teleop

37.8 36%

Endgame

34.6 33%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 56%

Supercharged: 7%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3302, 11486, 5467

/ 100 compat

Projected

69.3 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 3302, 11486, 5467

Auto

24.5 42%

Teleop

14.5 25%

Endgame

18.8 33%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 56%

Supercharged: 7%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.84 · Blue 1.38

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score99.5pts

Blue projected score69.3pts

Red win probability59%

Event bonus sample202alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 56%, blue 51%

Supercharged bonusred 7%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 30.2
Score range: 37–132
Upset likelihood: 41%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 181 vs event baseline 176.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

312.9Season APEX163.1

32.6Auto24.5

37.8Teleop14.5

34.6Endgame18.8

58Consistency10

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	21	30
teleop	65	35
endgame	17	13
foul	0	0
total	103	78

Result

Final score

103 – 78

Prediction correct · off by 6.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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