FIM District Troy Event presented by Aptiv Foundation

Qualification · Qualification 45

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

109.53 – 88.84

56%44%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

138 – 58

Prediction correct · off by 29.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 317.5 ±12.8

9747ElectroPanthers II

Season APEX 99.4Event APEX 16.29Rank 17Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

226Hammerheads

Season APEX 153.6Event APEX 73.25Rank 7Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9528The Wolf Pack

Season APEX 64.5Event APEX 19.99Rank 20Record 6-5-1Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 182.1 ±12.7

9679Madison Eagles

Season APEX 49.8Event APEX 45.76Rank 27Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5065Knights #5065

Season APEX 40.4Event APEX 3.57Rank 33Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5436Cyber Cats

Season APEX 91.9Event APEX 39.51Rank 35Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9747, 226, 9528

/ 100 compat

Projected

109.5 pts

~1.8 RP (district)

Teams: 9747, 226, 9528

Auto

5.2 5%

Teleop

67.4 63%

Endgame

35.2 33%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 62%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9679, 5065, 5436

/ 100 compat

Projected

88.8 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 9679, 5065, 5436

Auto

21.9 26%

Teleop

36.5 43%

Endgame

27.0 32%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 62%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.8 · Blue 1.39

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score109.5pts

Blue projected score88.8pts

Red win probability56%

Event bonus sample202alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 62%, blue 47%

Supercharged bonusred 4%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 20.7
Score range: 57–142
Upset likelihood: 44%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 196 vs event baseline 178.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

317.5Season APEX182.1

5.2Auto21.9

67.4Teleop36.5

35.2Endgame27

65Consistency23

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	17	23
teleop	72	29
endgame	24	6
foul	25	0
total	138	58

Result

Final score

138 – 58

Prediction correct · off by 29.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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