FIM District Troy Event presented by Aptiv Foundation

Qualification · Qualification 44

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

527.91 – 189.85

98%2%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

546 – 262

Prediction correct · off by 45.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 688.3 ±9.9

10652Mechanical MacGyvers

Season APEX 65.5Event APEX 40.8Rank 28Record 4-7-1Status establishedConfidence 97

4362Gems

Season APEX 237.4Event APEX 194.09Rank 4Record 9-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7769The CREW

Season APEX 385.4Event APEX 293.02Rank 1Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 343.3 ±11.7

9618Tronarchs

Season APEX 42Event APEX 26.4Rank 42Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

33Killer Bees

Season APEX 256.8Event APEX 173.35Rank 5Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5478Pershing Doughbots

Season APEX 44.5Event APEX -9.9Rank 30Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10652, 4362, 7769

/ 100 compat

Projected

527.9 pts

~2.8 RP (district)

Teams: 10652, 4362, 7769

Auto

77.0 15%

Teleop

296.2 57%

Endgame

143.4 28%

Strengths

· 7769 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 62%

Supercharged: 19%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9618, 33, 5478

/ 100 compat

Projected

189.9 pts

~0.6 RP (district)

Teams: 9618, 33, 5478

Auto

42.4 22%

Teleop

124.0 63%

Endgame

30.6 16%

Strengths

· 33 anchors offense

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 62%

Supercharged: 19%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.79 · Blue 0.64

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score527.9pts

Blue projected score189.9pts

Red win probability98%

Event bonus sample202alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 62%, blue 52%

Supercharged bonusred 19%, blue 6%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 338.1
Score range: 159–559
Upset likelihood: 2%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 808 vs event baseline 173.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

688.3Season APEX343.3

77Auto42.4

296.2Teleop124

143.4Endgame30.6

26Consistency40

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	113	59
teleop	310	131
endgame	113	72
foul	10	0
total	546	262

Result

Final score

546 – 262

Prediction correct · off by 45.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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