FIM District Troy Event presented by Aptiv Foundation

Qualification · Qualification 42

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

217.25 – 137.67

73%27%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

207 – 130

Prediction correct · off by 9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 333.6 ±12.4

201The FEDS

Season APEX 248.5Event APEX 167.37Rank 2Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9252Wingspan

Season APEX 45.5Event APEX 23.32Rank 36Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10665Unibots

Season APEX 39.6Event APEX 26.56Rank 21Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 214.6 ±12.1

5860Full Metal Muskrats

Season APEX 103.3Event APEX 59.06Rank 15Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

7762AutoPilots

Season APEX 64.3Event APEX 27.68Rank 40Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8115Platinum Peacocks

Season APEX 47Event APEX 50.93Rank 34Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 201, 9252, 10665

/ 100 compat

Projected

217.3 pts

~2.0 RP (district)

Teams: 201, 9252, 10665

Auto

27.8 14%

Teleop

111.8 56%

Endgame

58.5 30%

Strengths

· 201 anchors offense

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 54%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5860, 7762, 8115

/ 100 compat

Projected

137.7 pts

~1.1 RP (district)

Teams: 5860, 7762, 8115

Auto

35.6 30%

Teleop

51.2 44%

Endgame

30.1 26%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 54%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.05 · Blue 1.15

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score217.3pts

Blue projected score137.7pts

Red win probability73%

Event bonus sample202alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 54%, blue 56%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 79.6
Score range: 106–249
Upset likelihood: 27%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 337 vs event baseline 175.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

333.6Season APEX214.6

27.8Auto35.6

111.8Teleop51.2

58.5Endgame30.1

87Consistency68

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	43	24
teleop	107	60
endgame	52	36
foul	5	10
total	207	130

Result

Final score

207 – 130

Prediction correct · off by 9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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