FIM District Troy Event presented by Aptiv Foundation

Qualification · Qualification 41

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

144.3 – 81.14

69%31%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

277 – 61

Prediction correct · off by 76.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 384.9 ±11.7

11486Chesterton Saints

Season APEX 66.8Event APEX 10.73Rank 29Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9245Laker Dreadnoughts

Season APEX 228.3Event APEX 103.1Rank 8Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5531Orange Crush

Season APEX 89.8Event APEX 30.47Rank 12Record 8-3-1Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 369.3 ±12.2

11493Pixel Knights

Season APEX 227.1Event APEX 10.83Rank 13Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3302TurboTrojans

Season APEX 52.7Event APEX 48.21Rank 24Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4384Benzene Bots

Season APEX 89.5Event APEX 22.1Rank 32Record 4-7-1Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 11486, 9245, 5531

/ 100 compat

Projected

144.3 pts

~2.1 RP (district)

Teams: 11486, 9245, 5531

Auto

11.8 8%

Teleop

106.9 72%

Endgame

29.3 20%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 62%

Supercharged: 6%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 11493, 3302, 4384

/ 100 compat

Projected

81.1 pts

~1.2 RP (district)

Teams: 11493, 3302, 4384

Auto

16.8 19%

Teleop

34.2 39%

Endgame

36.4 42%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 62%

Supercharged: 6%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.07 · Blue 1.23

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score144.3pts

Blue projected score81.1pts

Red win probability69%

Event bonus sample202alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 62%, blue 54%

Supercharged bonusred 6%, blue 5%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 63.2
Score range: 49–176
Upset likelihood: 31%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 338 vs event baseline 175.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

384.9Season APEX369.3

11.8Auto16.8

106.9Teleop34.2

29.3Endgame36.4

83Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	73	28
teleop	141	18
endgame	63	15
foul	0	0
total	277	61

Result

Final score

277 – 61

Prediction correct · off by 76.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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