FIM District Troy Event presented by Aptiv Foundation

Qualification · Qualification 40

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

87.35 – 259.14

11%89%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

48 – 118

Prediction correct · off by 90.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 270.8 ±12.8

5467RoboTractors

Season APEX 43.6Event APEX 7.91Rank 39Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

226Hammerheads

Season APEX 153.6Event APEX 81.2Rank 7Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5197Northwestern High

Season APEX 73.6Event APEX -1.76Rank 31Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 365.2 ±12.4

1498The Polar Pilots

Season APEX 250.1Event APEX 147.75Rank 6Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5527Cyber Phoenix

Season APEX 71.7Event APEX 66.62Rank 19Record 5-6-1Status establishedConfidence 97

8364Rising Stars Academy - Nebulas

Season APEX 43.4Event APEX 44.77Rank 18Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5467, 226, 5197

/ 100 compat

Projected

87.4 pts

~0.8 RP (district)

Teams: 5467, 226, 5197

Auto

20.8 26%

Teleop

51.9 64%

Endgame

8.0 10%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 54%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1498, 5527, 8364

/ 100 compat

Projected

259.1 pts

~2.4 RP (district)

Teams: 1498, 5527, 8364

Auto

67.8 27%

Teleop

126.8 51%

Endgame

55.9 22%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 54%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.81 · Blue 2.44

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score87.4pts

Blue projected score259.1pts

Red win probability11%

Event bonus sample202alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 54%, blue 53%

Supercharged bonusred 4%, blue 10%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -171.8
Score range: 55–291
Upset likelihood: 11%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 166 vs event baseline 178.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

270.8Season APEX365.2

20.8Auto67.8

51.9Teleop126.8

8Endgame55.9

20Consistency50

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	15	23
teleop	20	60
endgame	13	35
foul	0	0
total	48	118

Result

Final score

48 – 118

Prediction correct · off by 90.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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