FIM District Troy Event presented by Aptiv Foundation

Qualification · Qualification 4

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

63.28 – 63.11

50%50%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

47 – 40

Prediction correct · off by 19.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 321.4 ±11.6

9679Madison Eagles

Season APEX 49.8Event APEX 24.34Rank 27Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

11493Pixel Knights

Season APEX 227.1Event APEX 21.8Rank 13Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5478Pershing Doughbots

Season APEX 44.5Event APEX 17.14Rank 30Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 193.2 ±13.3

7762AutoPilots

Season APEX 64.3Event APEX 14.62Rank 40Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

7716JLW Formula 01

Season APEX 43.6Event APEX 6.23Rank 43Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4961Shock and Awe-sum

Season APEX 85.3Event APEX 42.26Rank 23Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9679, 11493, 5478

/ 100 compat

Projected

63.3 pts

~1.5 RP (district)

Teams: 9679, 11493, 5478

Auto

16.7 28%

Teleop

21.1 36%

Endgame

20.9 36%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 49%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 7762, 7716, 4961

/ 100 compat

Projected

63.1 pts

~1.6 RP (district)

Teams: 7762, 7716, 4961

Auto

18.4 31%

Teleop

34.8 59%

Endgame

5.4 9%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 49%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.53 · Blue 1.57

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score63.3pts

Blue projected score63.1pts

Red win probability50%

Event bonus sample202alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 49%, blue 52%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 0.2
Score range: 27–99
Upset likelihood: 50%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Close match

Combined score 87 vs event baseline 201.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

321.4Season APEX193.2

16.7Auto18.4

21.1Teleop34.8

20.9Endgame5.4

10Consistency43

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	17	13
teleop	23	17
endgame	7	5
foul	0	5
total	47	40

Result

Final score

47 – 40

Prediction correct · off by 19.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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